Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
Core Financial Applications
- Portfolio Performance Evaluation — Comparing the performance of an actively managed fund to a benchmark index (e.g., S&P 500) over a 5, 10, or 20-year horizon. CAGR smooths out the volatility of individual years to reveal the true baseline compounding rate.
- Venture Capital & Private Equity Return Hurdles — Calculating the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for a single cash inflow and outflow. For a bullet investment, CAGR and IRR are identical.
- Revenue & EPS Growth Modeling — Pitch decks and 10-K filings use CAGR to demonstrate historical top-line revenue growth or to project future earnings per share targets over a strategic planning cycle.
- Target Capital Accumulation — Solving for the required rate of return to turn a current principal balance into a target retirement number within a specific timeframe.
Why CAGR Instead of Average Return?
If an investment drops -50% in Year 1, and gains +50% in Year 2:
- The Average Return is
(-50% + 50%) / 2 = 0%. This suggests you broke even. - The CAGR is
-13.4%.
If you started with $10,000, you dropped to $5,000, and then gained 50% to end at $7,500. You lost money. Average return lies; CAGR tells the truth. Average return (arithmetic mean) ignores the effects of compounding and sequence of returns, while CAGR (geometric mean) accounts for the actual capital path.